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"One Forest, Three Countries. . ." by Dalia Amor Conde
WNYC "Award-Winning Women in Science" with Leonard Lopate
NPR's "The Story" - "Friend of the Forest" by Lisa Curran, Ph.D.

































One Forest, Three Countries: Forecasting Deforestation
and Economic Impact of Roads in the Mayan Forest.


====>Click to hear "One Forest, Three Countries. . ."

====>Click to hear Questions and Answers

Dalia Amor Conde
PhD Candidate Duke University
Email: dac21@duke.edu

The Mayan forest is the largest remnant tropical forest in the Mesoamerican biodiversity hotspot. In spite of national and international conservation strategies to reduce deforestation rates, such as the Mesoamerican Biological Corridor, the rate of forest loss has been steadily increasing since 1970. In addition to an increase in deforestation in the region, a major development project proposed to connect a series of roads is planned. The objective of the present analysis is to forecast the impact of the roads on the Mayan forest in Belize, Guatemala and Mexico, and to understand their role on deforestation dynamics. Together with UPC* a Mexican NGO and the Conservation Strategy Fund, we used the RED** model to implement a cost-benefit analysis of the proposed roads for each of the countries. To quantify the historic deforestation trends in the region we analyzed LADSAT satellite images for three time periods (late 1970s, 1970s-1990, and 1990s-2000). Our land-cover change analysis showed differences in the trend of deforestation dynamics between the three countries. Belize showed a large reduction in deforestation, Mexico has had a steady increase, and Guatemala showed an exponential deforestation increase between 1990 and 2000. Our results show that roads distance and density resulted to be a robust and significant predictor of deforestation. Our cost-benefit analysis suggests that the economic benefits associated with proposed road building will not be sufficient to counterbalance the cost of building and maintaining the roads. This research suggests that the proposed road network will contribute to further deforestation, fragment key conservation areas in the Mayan forest while the costs of the roads are higher than its benefits.

*UPC , Unidos para la Conservación A.C , a Mexican NGO
*** Road Economic Decision Model, World Bank

Copyright © 2006, 2007 Dalia Amor, All Rights Reserved.






















Award-Winning Women in Science

Thank you very much to NY Public Radio WNYC's "The Leonard Lopate Show." Please visit their webpage to hear many other audio programs: http://www.wnyc.org/shows/lopate/. Also subscribe to the podcast via their RSS feed: http://www.wnyc.org/shows/lopate/rss

====>"Click to hear Award-Winning Women in Science " Date: February 26, 2007


Award-Winning Women in Science

Each year, some of the world's greatest women explorers, scientists and environmentalists are honored by Wings WorldQuest. Ethnobotanist Grace J. Gobbo is a 2007 award winner; she studies traditional medicine practices in Tanzania. Past honoree Dalia Amor Conde works in the Mayan Forests of Mexico, Guatemala, and Belize; she monitors jaguars' health and well-being as an indicator of the effects of deforestation.

Events: Grace Gobbo and this year's other honorees will be appearing with Jane Goodall Saturday, March 3 at 1 pm
The American Museum of Natural History.
It's free with museum admission.
For more information, visit http://www.american-mnh.org/ .

Copyright © 2006, 2007 WNYC Radio, All Rights Reserved









































NPR's "The Story" - "Friend of the Forest" by Lisa Curran, Ph.D.

Thank you very much to NPR's "The Story" with Dick Gordon for permission to link to their radio program. Please visit their webpage to hear many other audio programs: http://thestory.org Also subscribe to their podcast via their RSS feed: http://www.thestory.org/archive/podcast.xml

====>"Click to hear Friend of the Forest " Date: February 9, 2007

Lisa Curran is a tropical ecologist who teaches at Yale University. She knows all too well how heated the fight over the Borneo Forest can get. Since the 1980s, Lisa has seen canopies of mahogany trees cleared, burned and replaced with paved parking lots.

Dick Gordon talks to Lisa about her life fighting for the trees, and dodging the loggers who put a price on her head.

Please visit their website for a complete description of the interview: http://thestory.org/archive/



Copyright © 2006, 2007 American Public Media, All Rights Reserved







































 






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